"Shit Happens" and the War on Drugs

Mandik's Criteria [1]

In Madik's "Shit Happens", Mandik highlights certain criteria that he deems important to evaluating conspiracy theories, which are as follows:

  • explanations of
  • historical events in terms of
  • intentional states of multiple agents (the conspirators) who, among other things,
  • intended the historical events in question to occur and
  • keep their intentions and actions secret

Along with this criteria, there is clarification on the definition of intentional states as beliefs and desires of the conspirators, as well that when it comes to historical events in relation to this criteria, it does not only mean that the event happened in the past, but that it is also "what is being explained is a past event token rather than a past event type" (i.e. a specific event, rather than a generalization of multiple events)

The Conspiracy of the War on Drugs

President Nixon declared the War on Drugs as a political tool to target his oppressors, primarily the Black population. A few years after the War on Drugs was declared, cocaine began to spread rapidly in Black neighborhoods, In the 1980s, a drug operation run by Rick Donnell Ross distributed cocaine to gangs in Los Angeles, which furthered the crack epidemic in America. As a result of the amount of cocaine in these neighborhood, there was a skyrocket in the incarceration of Black people, as well as an increase of police brutality against the Black community. During Reagan's presidency, the emergence of crack cocaine became publicized in an effort to build support for legislative support for the war. This publicization included racially charged images of Black "crack dealers" and "crack babies". Due to this, is it highly speculated that the War on Drugs was a tool used by the government to disrupt, as well as vilify and incriminate Black communities. More about this theory here!

How Does this Theory meet Mandik's Criteria?

In order to assess and evaluate this theory, I will go through each of Mandik's points separately.

1 + 2: Explanations of historical events (in which the historical event is a token, rather than a type)

Based on Mandik's criteria, this theory offers an explanation on why the War on Drugs occurred: to disrupt Black communities. Mandik's criteria also specifies that in order for a theory to be considered, it must be a token, meaning that it must be a specific event. Due to this theory specifying the War on Drugs as a reason for the disruption of Black communities, and not just the entirety of Nixon and Reagan's presidencies, one could claim that Mandik's specification is met.

3 + 4: intentional states of (the conspirators) who, among other things, intended the historical events in question to occur

John Ehrlichman, an aide to President Nixon, stated in 1994 that "by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders, raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them night after night on the evening news. Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did." Mandik clarifies that intentionality is key here –– the conspirators intended for the historical events to happen. Based on this quote by Ehrlichman, the conspirators' intentions were to disrupt the Black community. There was also an intent to vilify the Black community, seen with the sudden emergence of racially coded images that populated the media after the War on Drugs was declared.

5: kept their actions secret

The conspirators intended to keep their true actions secret, and this theory upholds that. The CIA, although having admitted to using drugs in order to fund the guerrilla armies it supported, never admitted to intentionally seeking to destroy Black communities by allowing illegal drugs to be smuggled into the United States. Furthermore, the admittance of smuggling drugs for a completely different reason, and the War on Drugs being declared due to a concern of American livelihood in the wake of illegal drug usage, has been offered as an excuse. With this criteria, the true intention of the CIA and the government seems to have been kept secret.

Should it be believed?

Given Mandik's criteria, I believe that the War on Drugs being a political tactic used by the government to disrupt and destroy Black communities is rational to believe, more likely than the "Shit Happens" alternative: the War on Drugs was declared out of a pure want to end the usage of illegal drugs, as well as the CIA's involvement with Nicaraguan guerrilla armies, and the Black community's involvement with the war, as well as the influx of drugs in those communities is only an odd coincidence, and as Mandik says, "shit happens."

However, Mandik claims that for some events, we are justified in believing their occurrence due to there being instances of some generalizations of experience. In relation to this conspiracy theory, one would be justified in their belief of the government's wish to destroy Black neighborhoods due to instances of racism from experience. This belief in this conspiracy theory would also be justified due to past patterns of experience. Thus, this raises the inquiry of what if this is simply a "shit happens" event, and this conspiracy theory is only finding its' validity in the fact that there have been many past instances in which the United States government as committed acts that consistently and constantly disrupt the lives of Black Americans. Nonetheless, one cannot doubt the strangeness of this event, especially considering how quickly the Black community was pulled into the War on Drugs, especially during a time when illegal drug use had declined, and the arrests and convictions of Black people for drug possession had escalated.

Bibliography
1. file:///Users/lydiaknowles/Desktop/Mandik-Shit%20Happens%20(1).pdf
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